Yield shortfall of cereals in Ukraine caused by the change in air temperature and precipitation amount

Aim. To determine the trends in precipitation patterns, productivity, and cumulative impact of change air temperature levels on cereal yield, including corn spring barley, throughout vegetation cycle stages. Furthermore, examination alterations climate suitability, crop yield shortfall, their specific characteristics within soil-climatic zones Ukraine during 1981–2010 years Methods. In order to accomplish outlined aims conventional more research methods were used: 1) An analytical- synthetic approach – examine existing state-of-the art research; 2) A statistical assess intensity significance changes agroclimatic conditions pertaining cultivation; 3) comparative analysis specificities mentioned under different stages plant development; 4) climatic characterize evaluate productivity; 5) modelling effect amounts productivity variations surface shortfall these crops; 6) application abstract logical method formulate generalizations draw conclusions based findings. Results. During 1981–2010, experienced patterns increased barley zones. These had implications for suitability productivity. Polis- sia region, although there increases most crops` growth cycle, insignificant a minimal except certain periods. Similarly, coefficient showed low probability shortfalls entire Polissia maintaining avorable cultivation barley. Forest-Steppe varied. There was an increase amount western Forest-Steppe. The speed 10–20 % 10 areas, leading decreased by 3–6 over same duration. central witnessed decreases development stages, negatively impacting eastern deficits resulting reduced Overall, unfavorable effects field Forest-Steppe, particularly region. Corn 3–5 2–3 observed each years. general, however, favorable persisted remained satisfactory areas. Steppe minimal, with fluctuations 5 However, significant moisture occurred stage milky ripeness-middle dough phase resulted 3 decrease Spring benefited from tillering stagemilky ripeness middle higher (precipitation) considerable many cases adversely affected cultivation, especially southern Steppe. led 7–10 3–4 deemed unsatisfactory, while those satisfactory. Yield due 1981 2010 35–40 22–25 Conclusions. have cycle. Decreases ripening lower When combined temperature, further contribute pronounced are Steppe, where reached maximum potential optimal conditions, compared contrast, observation period (1981–2010), regardless precipitation. zone, Abnormally high temperatures coupled cereals areas country. combination drier underscores diminishing dryland farming Ukraine,